Many of you are still very busy in the field and haven’t had a chance to check in on the markets.  There have been positive movements in the wheat market over the past few days.

Chicago (soft red wheat) Minneapolis (spring wheat), and Kansas (hard red wheat) markets are all experiencing increases. This is fueled by lower, or delayed plantings in western Canada and drought conditions in the Northwestern US.  Although there are large carryovers in wheat, many specialists suggest that they are already priced in to the current pricing, so any further weather, or quality concerns could be favourable for the wheat market.  Specialists also suggest that as much as 50% of the current carryover is located in China – a country that does not typically import or export wheat.  Taking China out of the market puts wheat supplies at a 4 year low, further supporting a bullish attitude toward wheat.

HAVE YOU PRICED SOME WHEAT?

If you haven’t already done so, now would be a good time to consider locking in some pricing in rising market conditions.  Don’t let rally pricing opportunities pass you by.  Prices are near, or above $200/mt ($5.44/bu) with many wheat buyers in the Ontario trade for Soft Red Winter.

Don’t let the prices you want disappear while you are busy managing the fields.  Consider using resting orders or programs offered by your marketing partners to take advantage of rallies at this time of year.  Do yourself a favour and call your marketing representative and have your plan in place to ensure you don’t miss the next rally.

We are not a grain marketing service, but 2018 wheat pricing is at a level that cannot be ignored.  Sell a portion now

As we have seen in years past, early planting with even emergence matters, this cannot be stressed enough! There are really two wheat crops in Ontario, the early September planted wheat and the Thanksgiving and on planted wheat. The variability in heading within fields this year is unbelievable. In a year like this with high risk of fusarium and DON, it is a huge advantage to have evenly heading wheat.

Uneven emergence in the fall due to inadequate residue management creates a fusarium timing headache. When there are significant differences in heading date, it is impossible to time the field just right to get the most value from T3 fungicides. Another observation that is causing uneven heading is wheel tracks from early applications of nitrogen, or manure that has been applied if the same tracks were not used all season. The plants in the wheel tracks are one growth stage behind!

Usually we do not see these tracks, however this year they are visible in many fields. For maximum efficacy of T3 fungicides, you want to aim for 50% flower on at least 75% of the heads in the field. With the unevenness of the wheat this year, that might be very challenging to achieve. See Tim’s comments on application tips for best control.

http://redwheat.com/tims-tips-t3/ ‎

For the most part, the area London and south most of the wheat has been sprayed with a T3 fungicide. There might be the odd late planted field that is not quite there yet. In the area London north, T3 applications are about 40-50% done. The remainder are at day 0 to +2. In the Niagara region, T3 applications have been made on the early planted wheat with the later planted wheat not far behind.

North of London (Area 2) and East through to Ottawa Valley (Area 3) is preparing to be sprayed this week, or in the midst of spraying.  Many fields are just seeing heads emerge, but some are full head and early flowering at the proper spray timing.   The weather seems to be changing this week and may help with Fusarium control, but we still feel it is absolutely essential that we protect our crop with a T3 fungicide for 2 reasons, Fusarium control and Stripe Rust.

In all likelihood, you have either started spraying T3 fungicides, or you plan to in the coming days.  There is lots of great information out there for timing and application effectiveness.  Ensure to check out the archived videos on Wheat School website if would enjoy some more detailed information.

Here is a supplemental list of other timely considerations for getting this job done.

– The flowering wheat plant is at a very sensitive stage.  Every effort needs to be made to ensure that the sprayer is thoroughly rinsed before loading up your T3 products.  Don’t forget the inductor, agitation lines, and end caps on spray booms.  Use a tank cleaner agent also.  Be especially careful if your sprayer sat idle for a length of time before loading for T3.  Many of the other herbicide chemistry will stick to the rubber lines of sprayer.

– use LOTS of water 18-20gal per acre.  The target is every side of the head!  Paint the heads from every direction.  Forward/backward tips are a must, and adequate coverage is key.

– if threatening weather is in forecast, better to apply the product at a slightly early stage instead of late, in my opinion.  Refer to your fungicide supplier for timing assistance or resources.  Early Flowering stage is the optimum timing.

– EVERY ACRE deserves a T3 spray.  You will realize an advantage.  If you don’t believe us, leave a small check strip to compare.  You will never regret protecting your crop at this stage.

– In addition to the FHB protection, T3 fungicide application adds yield in grain, and also adds yield of cleaner brighter straw.

You may have noticed some new fields signs across the province.  They don’t say a variety.  They simply state – NEW RED $$$.   We are looking forward to launching a new variety of wheat for Ontario growers that has some real appeal to me personally.  When we grow wheat, it should be “with a purpose”, and this variety appears to have a great purpose!

Please read the following article, and if you are interested – call us!

Notes from a team of Ontario Agronomists

In my travels I have noticed too many soybean fields in Southern Ontario sitting bare doing nothing this spring. The wheat fields that I do come across look absolutely gorgeous. Then I come across what seems like endless soybean fields that could be covered with wheat but instead they are covered in weeds. I frequently ask myself why more of these fields are not covered with wheat. The benefits of having wheat in the rotation are what make a sustainable cropping system “sustainable”. In my opinion corn/soybeans or soybeans/soybeans are not a rotation, they are an alternation! My next question is why do some growers take wheat seriously and have it in their cropping system? I figured it would be suitable throw this question out there to the agronomist who work with growers day in and day out and learn why their growers take wheat seriously. Here is the feedback I received from the Ontario Cargill Agronomists.

“I’ve had growers really make it a priority in the past couple of years because they see the benefit of a healthy crop rotation through higher yields and better field conditions”

“My growers see the difference it makes to keep wheat in the rotation compared to continuous soys. (Better field health, higher fertility etc)”

“It is important to keep wheat in the rotation in order to build organic matter and have a good cover throughout the year”

“The ability to use a different mode of action in the wheat is important to break up corn/ soybean herbicide programs and keep away resistant weeds”

“A lot of my growers plant wheat to help spread the work load out throughout the season”

“My grower swears by a fungicide because when feeding it to cattle they will not eat it unless it has a fungicide on it. The quality is that much better”

“Growers that are serious about wheat add P&S even if they have manure on the ground; it helps promote a healthy wheat crop that much more”

“Successful farmers are not afraid to get in the field to protect their crop. Seven times was one growers record- Split N, Herbicide, 2X fungicide, Preharvest & Armyworm spray”

It’s time for us to make sure more Ontario growers are taking wheat seriously.  There are so many benefits to wheat in a rotation.   Always remember this quote:

“We have not inherited the land from our fathers, but have borrowed it from our children.”
Dennis Hall

STAGING UPDATE

The Ontario wheat crop is progressing quite rapidly. Some wheat fields in Essex County are already in the boot stage! As you go to the North and to the East, some fields are very close to the boot stage but I would say a good majority are in the flag leaf stage. With adequate soil moisture and heat in the forecast, the wheat crop will be full steam ahead.

STRIPE RUST

There have been multiple sightings of stripe rust throughout various counties in Southwestern Ontario recently. With the hot humid weather in the forecast, the stripe rust pressure can grow exponentially. It is extremely important to look at your varieties susceptibility to stripe rust and get out in the field and scout. We do not want to have a repeat of last year.

BURN ON WHEAT

Multiple fields have some leaf tissue burn from either UAN or herbicide/fungicide applications. The last couple weeks of cool wet weather resulted in the leaf cuticle getting thin, thus increasing the risk of burn. There will likely be very little to no yield impact unless the flag leaf got damaged during applications. If the second application of UAN has not gone on yet, it should be done very shortly. Be cautious of plant staging, nozzle selection and weather during application. Hot/humid weather will cause more injury than cool and cloudy.  70% of the yield comes from the flag leaf, to minimize injury, application methods may have to change depending on plant staging. It may be wise to switch to a dry source of nitrogen and use a spinner will narrow tires.

CEREAL LEAF BEETLE

Cereal Leaf Beetle is starting to show up in a couple counties. Nicole Weber from FS Partners said that a field in Waterloo County had very high pressure of adult beetles that were chewing on the leaves between the veins causing a window panning affect. According to OMAFRA, the action threshold is one Cereal Leaf Beetle adult or larvae per stem. In other counties, Cereal Leaf Beetle remains at low pressure. It is a good management practice to be on the lookout for them while scouting.

(Photo above captured by Emma Epp, May 2016)

It’s snowing in Kansas?  Yes, and not just a little bit.  Stripe Rust has made its way into Ontario so scout your fields and plan accordingly.

STRIPE RUST AND LEAF RUST NOW IN ONTARIO

After reporting that stripe rust has moved from to the northern US states we now have the first reports of it moving into Ontario.  Dale Cowan and the crew Agris Co-operative in Stoney Point have spotted the first pustules of Stripe rust in Ontario.  It did occur in a field of 25R46, which is a highly susceptible variety for stripe rust.

Fortunately, C&M Seeds lines have had excellent tolerance of stripe rust but strains do change, so growers should take warning and check their fields.  Consider applying a fungicide at your earliest chance, ESPECIALLY if you are growing a variety with lower tolerance.  Cargill Agronomist Emma Epp was the first to spot stripe rust in Essex county and report it to us in 2016 around May 15^th, but infection was at already at higher levels at this time.

According to Albert Tenuta, Field Crop Pathologist with OMAF, “we are at higher risk this year because of the mild winter in the US”.  We should expect a similar scenario to last year and should expect to see the first signs of Strip rust to become more evident within a week.  Tenuta also said to “scout all of your fields; if it looks like it is increasing, a preventative spray would be good for your integrated disease management strategy”.

Leaf rust has also made its appearance in Ontario on wheat at GS30-32 stages in Bruce County.  Leaf Rust is less impactful on yield than Stripe Rust but still warrants control.  We are also seeing lots of powdery mildew and septoria in fields across the province.  Some situations where powdery mildew has already moved onto the upper leaves – this can create a yield impact.   With the great stands of wheat we have in Ontario we need to protect every bushel.  SPRAY and Protect the high yield potential that we have set ourselves up for!  There are also signs of Wheat Spindle Streak Mosaic Virus coming into some fields.  Keep in mind that sprays will not control viruses.  If you are unsure, call us and we can help.

CHECK OUT TIM’S STORY ABOUT FUNGICIDE TIMING

 

Stripe rust found at Stoney Pointe area. Found mid canopy which means it was blown in in last few days check your fields pic.twitter.com/dafXOQIh4z

— Dale Cowan CCA . On (@SCSAgronomy) May 3, 2017

Twitter has been a great way to keep up to the minute on disease and crop staging.

 

https://twitter.com/SCSAgronomy/status/859794915714367489 – Tweet about stripe rust from Dale Cowan

KANSAS WHEAT AND SNOW

Anyone who watches the markets or is on Twitter could not have missed the Kansas wheat story this week.  The Hard Red Winter crop was drastically impacted by snow at heading timing and frost just before heading timing.

Local agronomists say it will take 10 to 14 days before the final effects of the unprecedented late-season freeze and snow events can be determined with any accuracy. The first estimate from the snow alone put loss potential at 50 million bushels or almost 1.4 million metric tons (MMT). That would be roughly equal to 5 percent of the 23.8 MMT 5-year average total U.S. HRW crop.  This may create some pricing opportunities as the news continues to come.

Frost around heading timing is impactful and could create up to a 20% yield loss, but the snow will have kinked stems in the regions where it occurred, making the crop a complete write-off.  The Kansas wheat tour is currently going on and it is reporting that where the snow events did not occur yields look normal creating a price impact on May 4^th.  I expect we may see more market reaction as more news comes out of this region – most likely positive as more bad news comes in.

Other news from across the wheat world – Spring wheat planted acres in Western Canada are expected to remain similar to last year.  Planting is progressing well.  This may cause some short term downside on the Minneapolis market.  Fusarium risk is Very High in the southern parts of the United States across the soft red growing region as well as parts of the HRW growing region. The rainfall we are expected to get is occurring now in the US and creating a high risk situation.  This story could create the next pricing opportunity in the coming weeks.  The reality is that we will continue to see great volatility in the wheat market.  Take advantage and price some wheat!

SPRING WHEAT PLANTING IN ONTARIO

Many regions have gotten their spring wheat in the ground across Ontario but some have not.  If you still don’t have your spring wheat planted, don’t worry – there is still good yield potential.  The newer varieties in the marketplace seem to be performing better in mid May planting.  The keys to high yielding spring wheat in this timing are to keep your seeding rate on the high side and ensure you encourage early growth with fertilizer.  Spring wheat does not tiller as much as Winter Wheat and will respond highly to most of your Nitrogen going on pre or just post plant.  Later applications (GS32) will help protein content but should be limited to around 25% of your total Nitrogen.

All of the highest yielding wheat fields in Ontario will be protected by a combination of two fungicides.  Your wheat crop did not slow down much in the face of this cool and wet weather.  Your choice will depend how thick your crop is, and how susceptible your variety is to the strains in your region.  All of the early planted wheat stands are showing some degree of powdery mildew, and septoria.  Tan spot found also.  Leaf rust is heavy in concentrated areas.  Stripe Rust is being found by the hour.  Keep up the good scouting!!   Talk to your supplier reps to ensure that the right product is chosen to target proper disease.  Be sure to use a combination of products with multiple modes of action as good resistance management.  And, use LOTS of water for max coverage.

A hypothetical Q&A from grower questions received recently…

Grower:  “Wet field conditions did not allow me to spray the herbicide or apply a T1 fungicide.  Weeds don’t seem to be threat.  Looks like T3 won’t be far away, why don’t I just wait?”

The Wheat Team:  Assuming your field is well developed and has a thick canopy, you will want adjust your sights on a T1.5>T2 timing.  All of the fungicides work in a preventative fashion, and they need to be applied proactively, and before disease sets in.  If your flag leaf is emerged, protect that upper canopy.  The Flag Leaf is the main method to capture sunlight and keep that plant factory operating at full capacity.  This early fungicide will also keep the stems clean and assist for greater standability (want to avoid lodging in thick stands.).

Grower:  “Can I tank mix my fungicide with second pass of fertilizer?”

The Wheat Team:  Unfortunately NOT.  Timing might match up, the application methods do not.  Fungicides need to be applied with a fat fan nozzle and high water volumes, the goal is to paint it on the leaves.  Liquid Fertilizer needs to be applied with coarse streamer nozzles and the goal is to get the liquid to the ground for plant uptake through roots.  For best results, and least visual damage, separate these applications by at least three days.

Grower:  “When it dries up, which comes first… do I apply T2 fungicide or second app fertilizer?”

The Wheat Team:  Allow the crop colour to tell you.  If the crop has healthy colour and does not appear to be missing nutrients, apply the fungicide first.  If the crop is showing pale colour from lack of nutrients, apply the fertilizer as soon as conditions allow, then following with fungicide.

Traveling across a wide range of counties assessing wheat fields, one thing is certain; getting the wheat crop off to a good start early is imperative. The range in plant staging is unbelievable this year. In Essex County the flag leaf is one third to almost fully emerged in a good majority of fields. In South Huron, some wheat fields planted around Thanksgiving are just at or soon to be at (GS32) two nodes visible. A wheat field planted late September in Lincoln County was at (GS32) two weeks ago and is well on its way to (GS39) flag leaf ligule just visible.

Since most of the province is wet and planting has been delayed, a great management practice for every grower to do is get out and assess their wheat fields. This is a great time to evaluate crop staging and clover establishment (if clover was under seeded). Furthermore, it is a good idea to scout for weeds, diseases, and nutrient deficiencies. Believe me, the weeds are there and are growing fiercely! A couple diseases that many people are starting to find are Septoria,Powdery Mildew, Leaf Rust, and Stem Rust.  (LINK to Focus on Fungicide)  If no sulphur was applied with the nitrogen application, we may start to see (S) deficiency. With the cool, wet weather we have been getting recently, the sulphur mineralization and plant uptake will be reduced. As mentioned in the previous Wheat News Plus article, (S) deficiency will show on the new growth first whereas (N) deficiency will show on the old growth first. If you are unsure, a good practice to do is to take tissue samples from parts of the field where the crop is lush and green then take tissue samples from the areas in the field that are yellow and pale. Then send the samples to a lab for analysis.

With the difference in crop staging, the management practice will vary from field to field. The growers who are at (GS32) will be looking to put their second shot of N on and apply herbicide and fungicides. The growers who have fields at (GS39) need to be very careful not to damage the flag leaf. Herbicides should not be applied once the flag leaf is visible.   UAN application becomes risky once the flag leaf unrolls and lays open, application is tricky but can be done, but be sure to avoid burn.  Dilute the UAN with water, apply when cloudy, and if possible, apply ahead of rain.

A management practice that I have heard more than once in the last couple weeks is waiting until (GS32) to put all the nitrogen on. I know there are certain areas that could not get on the fields due to wet conditions but this is what happens when growers only want to do one shot of N and delay it as long as possible to get the best bang for their buck. I completely understand but I am afraid some of those growers have sacrificed yield as a result. Again and again, split applying N not only reduces lodging risk but it also reduces the risk of N loss and the risk of not having any N on and letting the crop go backwards. If all the N has been applied already, we risk losing N through leaching and possibly denitrification if fields remain saturated and the temperatures start to increase. The fields that received all or just a shot of N early look top notch but the question I ask is how much N is lost? The growers that are coming in to do their application at (GS32) are generally using UAN 28% with a sprayer. They are either following the tracks from their first application or they are making their first set of tracks because dry was used upfront. Using a sprayer will greatly reduce the amount of wheat that gets tramped. If growers plan on using dry from now forward, application should only be made with a high clearance wide spread pattern machines with narrow tires.  . The yield impact from equipment with a wide footprint varies from 5-55% loss where the equipment drives. There are multiple factors that dictate the yield loss such as soil conditions, time of day, temperature and weight of the machine. The wheat crop looks fantastic, please do not “steam roll” it over.

Some interesting things have been popping up in the news lately.   Some of them will have future impact to Ontario Farmers.

STRIPE RUST

Stripe Rust has been spotted across parts of the US already in 2017.  Reports in late March had stripe rust stretching from Mississippi to Kansas in levels that warranted spray to control.  Around April 10^th reports started to surface of Stripe Rust being detected (at low amounts so far) as far north as Wisconsin.   With the Stripe Rust epidemic that occurred last year in Ontario this should act as an alarm.  It is bound to move further north if it is already being detected there. If you have planted a highly susceptible variety you should definitely consider applying an early (T1) fungicide onto your wheat.  C&M is fortunate to have very strong genetics for stripe rust, but if the outbreak is bad enough, it will eventually move into these fields as well.  CM 249 and Drew are slightly susceptible to stripe rust and likely should have a fungicide applied.  Cruze, WB 425, CM 614 and our entire Hard Red Lineup have very good strip rust tolerance.   If you are unsure about variety, fungicides, or have stripe rust questions, give us a call and we would be happy to discuss this topic with you.

 

Check out the link below about stripe rust in Wisconsin. http://fyi.uwex.edu/fieldcroppathology/2017/04/03/stripe-rust-found-to-be-present-and-already-active-in-wisconsin-winter-wheat/

 

LOWER ACRES

There is reason to be slightly bullish on wheat pricing opportunities in the future.  We have ended a winter wheat planting season in 2016 that saw the lowest seeded winter wheat acres in the US since 1909.  Lower acreage amounts occurred in both the Hard Red and Soft Red growing regions.  Western Canada also had very low winter wheat acreage planted.  Intended spring wheat acreage is expected to be down in Western Canada and the NorthWestern United States as well.  The lower acreage in the Northwestern US is mainly due to wetness delaying planting.  All of these situations will put pressure on the wheat market.  If there is any kind of crop quality concerns or crop loss in other growing regions in the world, we could see a rally in wheat markets.

Check out this link to further read about the situation with spring wheat in Northern US.
https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/perspectives/columns/cash-market-moves/article/2017/03/27/spring-wheat-durum-losing-ground

RECORD BREAKING YIELDS

A farmer in New Zealand has broken the record for highest wheat yield.  Eric and Maxine Watson of Ashburton harvested 249.68 bushels/acre on February 17.  This just shows that wheat responds to management more than most crops.  Although New Zealand has longer growing days than us, the wheat geek in me sees hope for the future of wheat yields in Canada.   We have plenty more to learn, but we are gradually inching closer.  2016 moved Ontario’s average yields to higher than ever before recorded average yields at 90.9 bu/acre.  New Genetics and improved management techniques continue to push the bar higher.

Key facts about the Watsons’ new world record wheat crop:

• Winter wheat, variety Oakley (irrigated)
• Planted April 9, 2016, harvested February 17, 2017
• Location – Paddock 15, Wakanui, Canterbury, New Zealand
• Yield – 16.791 tonnes/ha (6.69 ton/acre or 249.68 bushels/acre)
• Harvested from 11.89 ha (29.39 acres)
• The wheat will most likely go into animal feed for dairy cows.